Economic development, transport investment, and urbanization in Mexico: causality and effects
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The transport investment is often used as a tool for economic development and urbanization. However, there is still debate about whether transport improvements promote development and urbanization or, conversely, these latter create the conditions that stimulate the transport. In theory, the transport system contributes to development and urbanization because it speeds up the exchange of goods and services, but the effects can also be reversed, so the direction of causality is not so easily identified. This work uses Mexican state information of the 1988-2018 period, grouped as panel, to know both magnitude and direction of the impacts. Methodology consists in cointegration tests and VECM regressions. The results reveal that long-term causality goes from economic development to transport and its subsectors, which means that economic development is a necessary condition to modernize transport in Mexico. For urbanization, the causality and magnitude of the effects vary depending on the transport subsector. The total economy and passenger sector’s investments cause urbanization, but transportation and subsectors of cargo carriers and communications estimate two-way causality. The conclusions suggest that urbanization depends on improvements in transportation and the latter, in turn, on economic development.
Downloads
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
Afonso, A. y Alves, J. (2017). Reconsidering Wagner’s Law: Evidence from the Functions of the Government. Applied Economics Letters, 24(5), 346-350. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1192267
Akitoby, B.; Clements, B.; Gupta, S. e Inchauste, G. (2006). Public Spending, Voracity, and Wagner’s Law in Developing Countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 22(4), 908-924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.12.001
Andrei, T.; Teodorescu, D.; Oancea, B. y Stancu, S. (2009). Some Comments about Wagner Law. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 45(1), 45-63.
Babajide, A. A.; Okunlola, F. A.; Nwuba, E. y Lawal, A. I. (2020). Wagner Proposition in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis. Heliyon, 6(8), e04680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04680
Barra, C.; Bimonte, G. y Spennati, P. (2015). Did Fiscal Institutions Affect Wagner’s Law in Italy during 1951–2009 Period? An Empirical Analysis. Applied Economics, 47(59), 6409-6424. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1071475
Başar, S.; Aksu, V.; Temurlenk, M. S. y Polat, Ö. (2009). Government Spending and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: A Bound Testing Approach. Ataturk University Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 13(1), 301-314.
Bayrakdar, S.; Demez, S. y Yapar, M. (2015). Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law: 1998-2004, the Case of Turkey. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 493-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.06.251
Camagni, Roberto (2005). Economía urbana, Antoni Bosch Editor.
Campo, J. y Mendoza, H. (2018). Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012. Lecturas de Economía, (88), 77-108. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n88a03
Carro, J. (2021). ¿Por qué crece el gasto público? La ley de Wagner en el caso argentino. Revista de Economía Política de Buenos Aires, 22, 73-117. https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.1978.02
Chang, T.; Liu, W. y Caudill, S. B. (2004). A Re-examination of Wagner’s Law for Ten Countries Based on Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling Techniques. Applied Financial Economics, 14(8), 577-589. https://doi.org/10.1080/0960310042000233872
Comin, F.; Diaz Fuentes, D. y Revuelta, J. (2009). La relación entre el crecimiento económico y el gasto público en Argentina, Brasil, España y México durante el siglo XX. XVI Encuentro de Economía Publica, Granada, España, 5 y 6 de febrero de 2009. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv2175p1m.11
Consejo Nacional de Población (Conapo) (2022). Conciliación Demográfica de México, 1950-2015 y Proyecciones de la Población de México y Entidades Federativas, 2016-2050. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1xxvwr.9
Fujita, M., y Krugman, P. (2004). La nueva geografía económica: pasado, presente y futuro. Investigaciones Regionales, (4), 177-206.
Funashima, Y. (2017). Wagner’s Law versus Displacement Effect. Applied Economics, 49(7), 619-634. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1203063
Galindo, L. y Cordera, R. (2005). Las relaciones de causalidad entre el gasto público y el producto en México: ¿Existe evidencia de cambio estructural? Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 4(4), 369-386. https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v4i4.211
García-Rodríguez, J. F., García-Fariñas, A., Priego-Hernández, O. y Martínez-Pérez, L. (2017). Salud desde una perspectiva económica. Importancia de la salud para el crecimiento económico, bienestar social y desarrollo humano. Salud en Tabasco, 23(1-2), 44-47. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rfnsp.v35n2a09
Gujarati, D. y Porter D. (2010). Econometría, México, McGraw-Hill.
Gül, E. y Yavuz, H. (2010). Relationship between New Members of the EU and Public Expenditures and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1996-2008 Period. Journal of Finance, 158, 164-178.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) (1999). Estadísticas históricas de México, Tomos I y II, Aguascalientes, INEGI. https://doi.org/10.17013/risti.26.43-53
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) (2022). Sistema Automatizado de Información Censal (SAIC) de INEGI. Tabulados interactivos, Aguascalientes, INEGI. [https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/saic/]. https://doi.org/10.24873/j.rpemd.2017.07.017
Irandoust, M. (2019). Wagner on Government Spending and National Income: A New Look at An Old Relationship. Journal of Policy Modeling, 41(4), 636-646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.02.003
Kao, C. (1997). Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data When the Cross-Section and Time-Series Dimensions Are Comparable. Econometrics 9703002, University Library of Munich, Germany. https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpem/9703002.html
Kaur, K. y Afifa, U. (2017). Testing Wagner’s Law in India: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 46(17), 8510-8520. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2016.1183788
Kónya, L. y Abdullaev, B. (2018). An Attempt to Restore Wagner’s Law of Increasing State Activity. Empirical Economics, 55(4), 1569-1583. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1339-x
Krugman, P. y Venables, A. J. (1995). Globalization and the Inequality of Nations. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 857-880. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946642
Kumar, S.; Webber, D. J. y Fargher, S. (2012). Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality Tests for New Zealand. Applied Economics, 44(5), 607-616. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.511994
Lalanne, A. (2014). Zipf's Law and Canadian Urban Growth. Urban Studies, 51(8), 1725-1740. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098013498623
Mahdavi, S. (2011). A Re‐examination of Wagner's Law using US Total State and Local Expenditure and its Sub‐categories. Journal of Economic Studies, 38(4), 398-413. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111160860
Manet, L. (2014). Modelos de desarrollo regional: teorías y factores determinantes. Nóesis, 23(46), 18-57. https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2014.2.1
Maparu, T. S. y Mazumder, T. N. (2017). Transport Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is There Any Causal Relationship? Transportation Research Part A, 100, 319-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.033
Márquez Ortiz, L. E., Cuétara Sánchez, L. M., Cartay Angulo, R. C. y Labarca Ferrer, N. J. (2020). Desarrollo y crecimiento económico: Análisis teórico desde un enfoque cuantitativo. Revista de Ciencias Sociales, 26(1), 233-253. https://doi.org/10.31876/rcs.v26i1.31322
Martins P. y Gomes Da Silva, C. (2020). Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An Analysis of State Government Finances in Brazil. Review of Development Economics, 24(2), 628-643. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12662
Mishra, A. K. (2019). Cities, Transport and Agglomeration: Addressing the Urban Mobility Challenges in India. Growth and Change, 50(3), 1115-1133. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12321
Mohammadi, H. y Ram, R. (2015). Economic Development and Government Spending: An Exploration of Wagner’s Hypothesis during Fifty Years of Growth in East Asia. Economies, 3, 150-160. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies3040150
Narayan, S.; Rath, B. N. y Narayan, P. K. (2012). Evidence of Wagner’s Law from Indian States. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1548-1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.004
Nirola, N. y Sahu, S. (2020). Revisiting the Wagner’s Law for Indian States using Second Generation Panel Cointegration. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53(2), 241-263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-018-9237-6
Orduna Díez, L. (2008). Los fallos metodológicos del modelo keynesiano. Revista de Economía Mundial, 18, 405-421.
Paparas, D.; Richter, C. y Kostakis, I. (2019). The Validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries. International Economics and Economic Policy, 16(2), 269-291. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-018-0417-7
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653-670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597-625. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266466604203073
Permana, Y. y Wika, G. S. (2014). Testing the Existence of Wagner Law and Government Expenditure Volatility in Indonesia Post-Reformation Era. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(10), 130-139. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2314712
Rodríguez Benavides, D.; Venegas-Martínez, F. y Lima Santiago, V. (2013). La ley de Wagner versus la hipótesis keynesiana: el caso de México, 1950-2009. Investigación Económica, 72(283), 69-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0185-1667(13)72587-6
Rodríguez-Benavides, D. y López-Herrera, F. (2014). Desarrollo económico y gasto público de las entidades federativas en México: Análisis de cointegración en panel y la ley de Wagner. Gestión y Política Pública, 23(2), 299-330. https://doi.org/10.29265/gypp.v31i1.1012
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420
Ruperti, J. S.; Zambrano, G. E.; López, R. M. y Fernández, V. G. (2021). Análisis empírico de la ley de Wagner en la economía ecuatoriana. Revista Pensamiento Gerencial, (8), 7-16. https://doi.org/10.31876/rcs.v25i3.27364
Sakyi, D. (2013). On the Implications of Trade Openness, Foreign Aid, and Democracy for Wagner’s Law in Developing Countries: Panel Data Evidence from West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The Journal of Developing Areas, 47(2), 319-339. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2013.0033
Sala-i-Martin, X. (2000). Apuntes del crecimiento económico, Antoni Bosch.
Sánchez-Juárez, I. y Moreno-Brid, J. C. (2016). El reto del crecimiento económico en México: industrias manufactureras y política industrial. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 8(2), 271-299. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2016.8.2.4
Sánchez, R. y Wilmsmeier, G. (2005). Provisión de infraestructura de transporte en América Latina: experiencia reciente y problemas observados. CEPAL. División de Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura, 94, 9-11. https://doi.org/10.18356/2bf2509a-es
Sánchez-Robles, B. (1995). Capital público y crecimiento económico: un modelo alternativo. Cuadernos de Economía, 23, 349-371.
Sarmiento Guzmán, V. (2012). Comportamiento del gasto primario en Colombia: una evidencia empírica. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 4(2), 113-126. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v4.n2.2012.465
Schluter, C. (2021). On Zipf's Law and the Bias of Zipf Regressions. Empirical Economics, 61, 529-548. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01879-3
Sedrakyan, G. S. y Varela-Candamio, L. (2019). Wagner’s Law vs. Keynes’ Hypothesis in Very Different Countries (Armenia and Spain). Journal of Policy Modeling, 41(4), 747-762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.02.011