Desastres naturales y crecimiento económico: una síntesis de la evidencia empírica
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Los desastres naturales representan una grave amenaza a nivel mundial y, a futuro, se espera que su frecuencia y severidad aumenten debido al cambio climático. La evidencia empírica ha reportado resultados contradictorios en términos del impacto de los desastres en el crecimiento económico. En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo es sintetizar la evidencia empírica reciente de este tópico. Para ello se emplean técnicas de meta-análisis y meta-regresión. Se incluyen más de 650 estimaciones, de estudios publicados en los últimos cinco años (2015-2020). La revisión incluye tres fuentes (Scopus, Science Direct y Google Scholar). Los resultados identificaron la existencia de un efecto combinado negativo y significativo (-0.015). Los países en desarrollo son especialmente vulnerables frente a desastres. El impacto negativo es mayor para los desastres ocurridos en la última década -en relación a desastres anteriores-. Estos hallazgos constituyen un llamado de atención a favor de políticas de mitigación y adaptación.
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