Desastres naturales y crecimiento económico: una síntesis de la evidencia empírica

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2022.1.8

Palabras clave:

desastres, crecimiento, PIB, meta-análisis, meta-regresión

Resumen

Los desastres naturales representan una grave amenaza a nivel mundial y, a futuro, se espera que su frecuencia y severidad aumenten debido al cambio climático. La evidencia empírica ha reportado resultados contradictorios en términos del impacto de los desastres en el crecimiento económico. En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo es sintetizar la evidencia empírica reciente de este tópico. Para ello se emplean técnicas de meta-análisis y meta-regresión. Se incluyen más de 650 estimaciones, de estudios publicados en los últimos cinco años (2015-2020). La revisión incluye tres fuentes (Scopus, Science Direct y Google Scholar). Los resultados identificaron la existencia de un efecto combinado negativo y significativo (-0.015). Los países en desarrollo son especialmente vulnerables frente a desastres. El impacto negativo es mayor para los desastres ocurridos en la última década -en relación a desastres anteriores-. Estos hallazgos constituyen un llamado de atención a favor de políticas de mitigación y adaptación.

Natural disasters and economic growth: a synthesis of empirical evidence

Abstract

Natural disasters pose a serious threat globally and, in the future, their frequency and severity are expected to increase due to climate change. Empirical evidence has reported conflicting results in terms of the impact of disasters on economic growth. In this context, the aim of this paper is to synthesize the recent empirical evidence in this topic. For this, meta-analysis and meta-regression techniques are employed.
More than 650 estimates, from studies published in the last five years (2015-2020), are used. The review includes three sources (Scopus, Science Direct, and Google Scholar). The results identified the existence of a negative and significant combined effect (-0.015). Developing countries are especially vulnerable to disasters. The negative
impact is greater for disasters that occurred in the last decade -in relation to previous disasters-. These findings constitute a call for attention in favour of mitigation and adaptation policies.

Keywords: Disasters, growth, GDP, meta-analysis, meta-regression.

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Biografía del autor/a

Fernando Antonio Ignacio González, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur-UNS/CONICET y Facultad de Ciencias Económicas-UNAM

Becario Doctoral en Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur (IIESS, UNS-CONICET) y Docente en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, UNaM. 

Contador Público (UNaM), Licenciado en Economía (UNaM), Magister en Economía (UNS) y doctorando en Economía (UNS).

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Publicado

2021-10-15 — Actualizado el 2021-12-10

Cómo citar

González, F. A. I. (2021). Desastres naturales y crecimiento económico: una síntesis de la evidencia empírica. Nóesis. Revista De Ciencias Sociales, 31(61), 155–173. https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2022.1.8

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Sección

Ciencias Sociales