The adoption of international legislation and local perverse incentives
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20983/anuariocicj.2024.16Keywords:
Legislation, Public Policies, Incentives, Intentional homicides.Abstract
In 2015, the decreasing trend in the rate of intentional homicides that had begun in 2011 was reversed.This phenomenon coincided with the final stage of implementation of the National Code of Criminal
Procedures (CNPP), supported by the 2008 Constitutional Reform. Although Olvera (2019), points out a
temporal coincidence, in this work it is proposed that said reform, the (CNPP), as well as the
Constitutional Reform on Human Rights of 2011 and the National Law of Criminal Execution (LNEP) of
2016, contributed to create perverse incentives in the control and reduction of crime, by promoting
greater impunity and eliminating the continuity of public policies against crime and violence of
previous federal administrations. The objective of this work is to test the hypothesis that the
reduction in the number of prisoners, generated by the aforementioned legislation, has caused a
significant increase in the rate of intentional homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants. The methodology
used consists of estimating the effect of changes in the population deprived of liberty (as an
explanatory variable) on the homicide rate per 100 thousand inhabitants (as a dependent variable),
in natural logarithms, by OLS. The results obtained a coefficient of -1.9897, which means that, during
the study period from 2010 to 2020, a 1% reduction in the population deprived of liberty causes a 2%
increase in the intentional homicide rate. Conclusions. To try to replicate legislation, reforms and
policies on complex issues, where people's behavior is a relevant variable, it is necessary to carry
out impact evaluations, such as those that CONEVAL indicates for the construction of infrastructure
works, or those that are carried out in social programs.
References
Alonso-Trabaco, J. M. (2022, abril 20). Evolution of organized crime in Mexico. Geopolitical Monitor. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-evolution-of-organized-crime-in-mexico/
Base de datos de Estadísticas Internacionales de Homicidios de la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas contra la Droga y el Delito.
Becker, G. (1968). Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76(2): 169-217. The University of Chicago Press.
Bonilla, Leonardo (2009) Revisión de la literatura económica reciente sobre las causas de la violencia homicida en Colombia. Documentos de trabajo. Economía regional, Banco de la República.
Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. En línea, visto el 23 de mayo de 2024 https://www.diputados.gob.mx/Leyes-Biblio/pdf/CPEUM.pdf
Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política del Desarrollo Nacional, en Línea, visto el 23 de mayo de 2024. https://www.coneval.org.mx/Medicion/MP/Paginas/AE_pobreza_ 2020.aspx
Órgano Administrativo Desconcentrado de Prevención y Readaptación Social, Cuaderno Mensual de Información Estadística Penitenciaria Nacional, varios números 2010 a 2020.
Decreto por el que se reforman y adicionan diversas disposiciones de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. DOF. 18-06-2008.
Decreto por el que se modifica la denominación del Capítulo I del Título Primero y reforma diversos artículos de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. DOF. 10-06-2011
Espinosa A., Hernández, J., Leal, R. y Ramos, G. (2009). Las determinantes del crimen en México. Revista Estudiantil de Economía, 1(1). Tecnológico de Monterrey.
Fingermann, H. (2013, febrero 15). Concepto de universalismo. Deconceptos.com. https://deconceptos.com/ciencias-sociales/universalismo
Fiorentini, G. y Pelzman, S. (1995). Economics of Organized Crime. Cambridge University Press. England, United Kingdom.
Freeman, R. (1999). The Economics of Crime. En Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3 (O. Ashenfelter y D. Card, eds.). Elsevier.
Hernández Brigas, H. (2021). Homicidios en América Latina y el Caribe: magnitud y factores asociados. Notas de Población, 113: 119-144.
Calderón, L., Heinle, K., Kuckertz, R., Rodríguez Ferreira, O., y David A. S. (eds.). (2021, octubre). Organized Crime and Violence in Mexico: 2021 Special Report, Justice in Mexico. University of San Diego.
Levitt, S. D. (1996). The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2): 319-351.
Ley Nacional de Ejecución Penal (2016, junio 16). Diario Oficial de la Federación.
North, D., Wallis, J. y Weingast, B. (2009). Violence and Social Orders. A conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History. Cambridge University Press.
Olvera Rivera, A. (2019). Crisis de régimen, autoritarismo subnacional y reforma penal en México. Perfiles Latinoamericanos, 27(53). DOI: 10.18504/pl2753-006-2019
Cámara de Diputados. LXIV. (2019, abril 30). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2018-2024. Gaceta Parlamentaria, XXII(5266-XVIII). https://bit.ly/32fYjbm
Vilalta, C., Castillo, J. y Torres, J. (2016). Delitos violentos en ciudades de América Latina. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Documento para discusión Núm. IDB-DP-474.
