Fricciones en el comercio interregional: una aproximación basada en datos municipales

Jorge Díaz Lanchas, Carlos Llano Verduras

Resumen


Estudios recientes muestran que el efecto frontera, que enfatiza el impacto negativo de la distancia en los flujos de comercio internacional, surge de un error metodológico al utilizar la variable distancia, ya que al desagregar dicha variable no presenta efectos significativos. Bajo este contexto, utilizamos microdatos de los cargamentos distribuidos por tierra dentro de España durante el periodo 2003-2007, desagregamos los flujos de comercio municipal en un margen intensivo y extensivo y utilizamos diferentes medidas de costos de transporte, distancia geográfica y tiempo de traslado. Observamos que al considerar flujos comerciales detallados, el margen extensivo se incrementa en el tiempo mientras que el número de cargamentos disminuye conforme aumentan la distancia y el tiempo, lo anterior comparado con el valor promedio de dichos cargamentos (margen intensivo). En contraste con estudios previos, encontramos que la diferencia entre el margen intensivo y extensivo es mínima cuando se considera el tiempo en lugar de la distancia, lo cual también impacta en el valor total del comercio dentro de una misma municipalidad, ya que este resulta más importante. Finalmente, encontramos diversos efectos de las fronteras regionales en ambos márgenes, ya que tanto las provincias como las comunidades autónomas no impactan considerablemente en el comercio, especialmente en el margen intensivo. Estos hallazgos aportan evidencia frente al supuesto efecto frontera, el cual se presenta si la distancia estadística es medida de manera agregada, en lugar de considerar medidas más detalladas.

The border effect literature emphasizes the negative effect of distance on the international trade flows in favor of a greater proportion of trade within the national countries. However, recent works have shown that the border effect arises from a methodological error in measuring the distances within the international trade, having practically no effect when it is measured with the highest level of disaggregation. In this context, and using a micro-dataset about shipments by road within Spain during the period 2003-2007, we decompose the municipal trade flows into the intensive and extensive margin using different measures of transport costs, geographical distance and time, defined at the highest level of detail. Thus we see that, considering very detailed flows, the extensive margin increased a lot along the time, although the number of shipments (extensive margin) drops more sharply with increasing distance and time than the average value of such shipments (intensive margin). In contrast with previous studies, we find that the difference between the intensive and extensive margin is minimal when we consider time instead of distance. Furthermore, the total value of trade within the same municipality is much more important when we consider the time evolution (years). Finally, we find that regional borders have different effects on both margins, indeed provinces and autonomous regions don’t have a strong impact on trade, especially on the intensive margin. These findings provide more evidence about the “illusory” border effects problems that arise if statistical distance is measured in the aggregate rather than considering more detailed measures.


Palabras clave


efecto frontera; comercio interregional; costos de transporte; border effect; interregional trade; transport costs; intensive and extensive margin

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